Modeling and forecasting Hong Kong tourist arrivals

In recent years, the government of the Hong Kong SAR intends to diversify the economic structure and make it a more knowledge-based and high value-added economy. Tourism is of course one of the key industries that the government focuses to develop. To grasp the growth of the international tourist arrivals, better infrastructure and wellorganized marketing strategies are necessary…

Contents

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Contributions
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Tourism Forecasting
2.2 Univariate Time Series Methods
2.3 Multivariate Forecasting Methods
2.4 Time-varying Parameter Model
CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY
3.1 Stationarity Test
3.2 Univariate Time Series Methods
3.3 Multivariate Forecasting Methods
3.4 Time-Varying Parameter Model
3.5 Estimation Method
3.6 Accuracy Measures
3.7 Statistical Tools
CHAPTER 4 DATA DESCRIPTION
4.1 Destination Country
4.2 Origin Countries
4.3 Proxy Variables for Tourism Demand
4.4 Long-term Trend and Monthly Variation of Tourism Demand
4.5 Exogenous Variables
4.6 Functional Form
4.7 Time Frame
CHAPTER 5 UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS
5.1 Stationarity Tests
5.2 Naïve, Moving Average, Decomposition Method & Exponential Smoothing
5.3 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA)
CHAPTER 6 MULTIVARIATE FORECASTING METHODS
6.1 Intervention Model
6.2 Transfer Function Model
6.3 Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR)
CHAPTER 7 TIME-VARYING PARAMETER MODELS
7.1 Fixed Parameter Regression Model
7.2 Stability Test based on Recursive Residuals
7.3 Time-Varying Parameter Model
CHAPTER 8 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE
8.1 On-sample Evaluation
8.2 Off-sample Evaluation
8.3 Model Reconstruction
8.4 Best Forecasting Model….

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Author: Cheung, Ka Yan

Source: City University of Hong Kong

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